India faces uphill battle after series loss to NZ in WTC scenarios

India's head coach Gautam Gambhir stated at the beginning of the series against New Zealand in Pune, "The World Test Championship is scheduled for June and we are solely focused on the upcoming Test match in Australia on November 22. At the moment, our only priority is to prepare for the series against New Zealand."

He would not have envisaged how horribly wrong things would go for India against New Zealand. Gambhir and Co will now be frantically looking at scenarios to qualify for the WTC final in June 2025.

If India goes on to lose the Pune Test – they are currently trailing by 301 second innings’ runs - their 0-2 scoreline will leave them not only in a must-win situation with the final Test match in Mumbai, but they would also need at least three wins out of five in the upcoming Border-Gavaskar trophy against Australia to guarantee themselves of a ticket to Lord’s.

Currently India is sitting comfortably at the top of the WTC points table with 8 wins in 12 matches that translates to 68.06 % points. But that could all change if South Africa make a late dash in lead up to final in June. If South Africa manage to win all their five remaining matches, India will have no other way than pulling off a hat-trick of series wins Down Under.

It’s a relatively easy draw for South Africa, who are slated to meet Bangladesh next, who they beat convincingly in Mirpur, this week. After that they play, two teams from the sub-continent Sri Lanka and Pakistan in two-Test series each at home.

India would want to win the Mumbai Test, but in a scenario where New Zealand pushes them further back with a white wash, there is only a thin possibility that they could still make the final by beating Australia 3-2. For that they would hope that the Kiwis will be blanked 3-0 at home by England.

Fair to say, for Rohit Sharma’s men, who have been topping the charts for a majority of the two-year cycle, this would be a sorry turn of events. All because of cracks beginning to emerge at home, exploited by the Kiwis.

In Australia’s case, a comfortable 3-2 win against India should do. But they too could be made to push harder by South Africa and New Zealand. India are two-time finalists in WTC history, having finished second best to New Zealand in 2021 and to Australia in 2023.