Emirates NBA Cup Championship: Thunder vs. Bucks Preview and Prediction

LAS VEGAS – As the Emirates NBA Cup finale approaches, the stark contrast in age and experience between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Oklahoma City Thunder is evident. The Bucks boast a roster filled with seasoned veterans, All-Stars, and NBA champions, while the Thunder are a young and rising team, poised to secure the top seed in the Western Conference for the second year in a row after overcoming years of struggles and rebuilding. It's a matchup that showcases the best of both worlds in the NBA – experience vs. youth, proving that success can come in many forms in the league.

But backstories and life cycles won’t matter much when the ball goes up Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

There is a trophy to be won, a fat payday for the losers ($205,988 per player), an even fatter one ($514,971) for the winners. And an outcome that, while it won’t count in the regular season standings, could serve as a good gut check now and momentum toward something bigger come spring.

“It just comes down to one game and that’s it,” Milwaukee guard Damian Lillard said Monday. “I don’t think nobody, at least with us, is looking at it like, ‘Oh, we old and all that and they young.’”

Same for OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

“To be completely honest with you, I don’t differentiate games on who I play against,” he said. “If we play the worst team in the league, the best team in the league, I’m trying to take their head off.”

That’s the spirit. The Thunder and the Bucks enter as two of the hottest teams in the league, 12-3 in their last 15 games. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo are strong early Kia MVP candidates, positioned to claim the tournament’s MVP honor too with a victory.

How the Thunder have fared in NBA Cup play so far

OKC has been the same team in its Cup run that it was through the season’s first eight weeks, ranking eighth offensively, first defensively and first in net rating. It breezed through a generally soft West Group B, beating the Lakers, the Jazz and the Kevin Durant/Bradley Beal-less Suns.

But the Knockout Rounds offered tests with Dallas and Houston, and the Thunder aced both. They miss Chet Holmgren (hip fracture) on the court, but haven’t sagged; after going 8-2 with Holmgren, they are 12-3 in his absence.

Difference makers for the Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: He has boosted his scoring average in Cup play, averaging 32.2 points to go with 6.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists while shooting at a 50-40-90 rate in these six games. In the quarterfinals, SGA scored 39 on 15-for-23 accuracy to eliminate Dallas, then had 32 in the semifinal over Houston.

Isaiah Hartenstein: The team’s new big man has been invaluable, averaging 11.5 points on 54.1% shooting and grabbing 11 boards with 2.8 blocks in Cup games. He has won over Thunder teammates with his screens, passing and disregard for individual acclaim, all while helping them to a 9-1 record since his injury-delayed start to the season.

How the Bucks have fared in NBA Cup play so far

The Cup came along at the right time for Milwaukee, which began the season 2-8 and was eager, even desperate, for a renewed focus. The Bucks’ 11th game was their Cup opener against Toronto, which jump-started a 9-1 streak.

With consistent shooting and more aggressive defense, Milwaukee has improved in Cup play to seventh offensively, fifth defensively and second in net rating, compared to 11th, 13th and 14th overall. And they’ve only had veteran wing Khris Middleton for four rusty, minutes-restricted games after he missed the first 21 recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

Difference makers for the Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Greek Freak has been scoring (32.7 ppg) and shooting (61.4%) better than in his two MVP seasons. He’s a fearsome force at both ends (3.8 blocks/steals in Cup play), and with 23, he is two games shy of tying the NBA record for most consecutive games with at least 20 points on 50% accuracy or better.

Damian Lillard: The point guard has dialed up his performances in the Cup as well, averaging 28.2 ppg vs. 25.7 overall. He and Antetokounmpo are the highest-scoring tandem in the NBA, combining to average 58.4 points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander and teammate Jalen Williams rank fourth at 52.4 ppg.

Head-to-Head record

This is the teams’ first meeting this season, with their two regular-season meetings scheduled for Feb. 3 in OKC and March 16 in Milwaukee. They split a pair last season. The most recent was on April 12, when the Bucks lost on the Thunder’s court without Antetokounmpo or Lillard.

But OKC coach Mark Daigneault felt the Thunder’s March 24 loss at Fiserv Forum was pivotal for his young crew. “They really took it to us, and it was a great game for us,” Daigneault said. “It was like water in the face for us. … It really informed us [of] the level of physicality, focus, everything you need to win against a good team.”

Prediction

Bucks. Since this one is in Vegas, we’ll note that the oddsmakers had the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites entering Monday night. Both teams are equally hot – OKC rolling, Milwaukee closing out a lot of tight games – and the two superstars are as good as it gets. As sidekicks, Lillard is capable of outscoring everyone, while Thunder forward Williams is a little Scottie Pippen-like. Here’s one wrinkle that could decide it: Milwaukee makes a lot of 3-pointers (38.9% accuracy) while Oklahoma City gives up a lot (44.6% of opponents’ shots come from the arc). If it’s a make night instead of a miss night, Milwaukee prevails.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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