NBA Fantasy: Top DFS lineup selections and tips for Dec. 16

We have a diverse six-game slate awaiting us tonight, providing plenty of opportunities to mix up your lineups. It all comes down to selecting the best options and identifying the optimal spots, and that's where I come in. Join me as we analyze the top plays for this exciting slate of games.

NBA DFS Core Plays

Nikola Jokić (C – DEN)

DraftKings: $12,200FanDuel: $12,500

After 90-and 85-fantasy point outings, Nikola Jokić came back down to earth and reminded us he is human after all with a 30-point outing against the Clippers on Friday. 

Before, Jokić had six straight games scoring 59+ fantasy points. The Kings are a bit easier matchup than the Clippers and I imagine Jokić will want a bounce-back effort. There may even be lower rostership due to recency bias. Considering he’s projected for around 60 points and is the only player reasonably capable of getting 80+ points, I’m going to find ways to get Jokić into my lineup tonight.

James Harden (PG – LAC)

DraftKings: $9,400FanDuel: $9,200

When looking at matchups, the Utah Jazz are one of the best. They are the lowest-ranked defense this season and will pace up the Clippers in this home game where Los Angeles is favored by nearly double digits. The Jazz also allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, so the stars are all aligning for a ceiling game from Harden.

Harden has had a fair amount of volatility but he’s shown ceiling games of 70+ points. He had a streak of eight straight games of 39+ fantasy points at one time and his usage has crept above 33% in the past few weeks. More opportunities against the lowest-ranked defense in the league is a great spot to slot Harden into your lineups.

RJ Barrett (SF, PF – TOR)

DraftKings: $9,100FanDuel: $8,800

The Bulls are the fastest-paced team in the league. They also are a bottom-five defensive team, which is why this total sits just shy of 240 points. The Bulls have allowed the second-most fantasy points across the board and second-most to point guards, where Barrett currently slots.

The Duke product’s price might be rising but he’s tallied 48 fantasy points in consecutive games and projects for around 45 tonight with a much higher ceiling. His usage has consistently stayed at 30% and he’s peaked at 65 DraftKings points in tougher matchups. People might fade him because of his price but he still makes for a great DFS option tonight in cash and GPP contests.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Paul George (SG, SF, PF – PHI) 

DraftKings: $8,300FanDuel: $8,500

With

Joel Embiid

out, Paul George is due for an increased workload. He’s seeing over a 25% usage rate without Embiid in the lineup. I expect that to be even higher tonight.

The Hornets are a bottom-10 defense. I project George for over 40 fantasy points tonight with a safe floor.

Jakob Poeltl (C – TOR)

DraftKings: $7,300FanDuel: $7,800

With no

Scottie Barnes

in the lineup, Jakob Poeltl’s usage has been much higher and he is quite underpriced here. If you’re not going Jokić, this is your clear second-best option of floor/ceiling combo. The Bulls are a big pace-up, poor defense spot, which is delightful for DFS.

Poeltl is a near lock for 40 fantasy points given the opportunity he will get with increased possession, higher usage, and expected cleaner looks. With a potential 6X multiplier he will be highly rostered. However, given his price tag, you can open up areas for the rest of your lineup and feel comfortable slotting Poeltl into your cash lineups.

Norman Powell (SG, SG – LAC)

DraftKings: $6,500FanDuel: $6,500

Early projections show a lot of rostership going to the Clippers and Raptors tonight, and I can’t blame DFS players. Norman Powell gets to face the easiest defense in the league across 30+ minutes of play. What gets better than that at a $6,500 price tag? He also has dual eligibility with the guard-forward status, which will only double his rostership.

Powell makes for a great play to plug into your lineup that won’t break the bank. He still offers plenty of upside against the Jazz, especially since he’s been seeing a near 29% usage rate over the last two weeks of play and has gone north of 40 fantasy points a handful of times already this season.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Nikola Vučević (C – CHI)

DraftKings: $8,500FanDuel: $8,200

With rostership going elsewhere for centers, I expect rostership to drastically drop on Nikola Vučević tonight, especially with the questionable tag next to his name. Of course, double-check before locking in but despite dealing with an illness, he should be good to go.

With a 241-point total, there is a lot to go around here tonight in Toronto. Chicago is a great DFS matchup but the Raptors aren’t too far behind. Toronto has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers and is still a bottom-10 defensive unit. Without Scottie Barnes, I only expect that to decrease further. Coming in below 10% projected rostership, he makes for a great GPP pivot.

Brandon Miller (SG, SF – CHA)

DraftKings: $8,900FanDuel: $7,900

This is more so a FanDuel option. However, I don’t expect Brandon Miller to see more than 5% rostership tonight on DraftKings. He might reach 15% on FanDuel. A big piece of this puzzle is going to be if

LaMelo Ball

plays tonight. If not, Miller is a smash GPP play and may get some last-second rostership since it will be decided before lock.

Set an alarm for 6:45 p.m. ET to check because that is some big injury news. Without Ball, Miller’s price has only continued to rise, which makes him a much less appealing option if the Hornets guard is back. Either way, Miller has had 60+ fantasy point outings. Against an injured 76ers team at home, he makes for a fine play in large-field GPPs.

Keegan Murray (SF, PF – SAC)

DraftKings: $5,700FanDuel: $5,800

It may not seem like a great matchup off the bat, which is why Keegan Murray is projected for under 10% rostership on both DFS sites, but Denver has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this year.

The total also slots at 237, so the scoring has to come from somewhere. Murray has had double-digit scoring efforts in four of his last five games and his averages are up over the last two weeks compared to his seasonal standards. A big ceiling game is coming, but he is more than capable of going past the 40-point mark. It’s better to be early than late.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Jonathan Mogbo (PF, C – TOR) 

DraftKings: $4,400FanDuel: $4,800

There’s a little flexibility here with the power forward-center eligibility. Assuming he’s in the starting lineup again tonight, this is an awesome spot for Jonathan Mogbo, who played 30 minutes in his second start of the year in Scottie Barnes’ absence.

Even if Mogbo isn’t the most efficient player he still has a good matchup and is vastly underpriced for a starter against the Bulls. He could be the best value option on the slate depending on how injuries play out before lock. He will be highly rostered but still makes for a great play.

Simone Fontecchio (SF, PF – DET)

DraftKings: $3,200FanDuel: $3,700

For another expected starter under $4,000, we have Simon Fontecchio. To be fair, it isn’t nearly as exciting of a matchup against Miami but the Pistons forward makes for a great punt play to add stars into your lineup.

Tobias Harris

has already been ruled out, meaning Fontecchio should see a baseline of 20 minutes on the court but should be closer to 25. Even if he manages just 20 fantasy points that is still excellent value for what you’re looking for, and the rostership will follow that. Don’t be too surprised if he is a cash game and head-to-head lock tonight.

Kevin Porter Jr. (PF, SG – LAC)

DraftKings: $4,400FanDuel: $5,200

In another great matchup, we have Kevin Porter Jr. taking on the lowest-ranked defense in basketball. I don’t expect him to get the start but there is a good chance this gets out of hand and he sees the floor for closer to 30 minutes instead of his projected 24 or so.

Even if he manages the latter, his usage is still above 25% when he plays. He’s managed double-digit scoring efforts in limited minutes over the past couple of weeks. He’s projected for around 25 fantasy points and makes for a bit more GPP-friendlier option compared to the other pure value plays on the slate.